Every investor dreams of certainty. But the truth is, you never really get it — not with markets, not with money, not with life. What you get instead is a fog. You can’t see far ahead, and the best you can do is make decisions with the information right in front of you.

That has always been the game. It still is.

The Rational Thinking Trap

It is tempting to believe that more information, ideas or better models will make the future less uncertain. They won’t. The future does not care how clever or confident you are.

Wise investors understand this. They don’t try to eliminate uncertainty; they learn to live with it. They know that randomness plays a bigger role than anyone likes to admit. Through experience they have made their peace with that.

A high-quality decision is not one that always works out. It is one that made sense when you made it. That is all you control. Everything else is luck and timing dressed up as skill.

What Experience Teaches

Markets don’t get less random. But with time, they feel less intimidating. Not because the markets change but because you do.

You stop reacting to every movement. You stop trying to outguess the crowd. You learn that patience and discipline do most of the compounding

Investors are rewarded not for being fearless, but for being intentional. They are rewarded for taking risks that make sense, avoiding those that don’t, and staying humble enough to keep a plan intact when emotions flare.

If you have a sound investment plan and stick to it, you avoid the emotional hangover that comes from reacting to changing markets. You protect not just your portfolio, but your peace of mind.

“High-Quality” Decisions are Simple

They don’t show up in the headlines. They are built around boring virtues that compound quietly over time:

• Don’t sell in panic.
• Don’t bet everything on one story.
• Don’t pretend you can predict what no one can.

Simple, not easy. But the simplicity comes with the powerful side effect of having fewer regrets.

The Subtraction Game

We love to add new strategies, new insights, new complexity. But often, the clearest thinking comes from subtraction. Removing what does not matter. Sticking to what does.

Rick Rubin’s philosophy of creative reduction says that when you eliminate the non-essential, what remains is the pure essence — the “soul” — of the work.

Good investing is a strange mix of humility and conviction: you act with confidence, knowing full well that you might be wrong.

The Simple Truth

You cannot control outcomes, but you can control the process. You cannot avoid randomness, but you can build resilience toward it.

Th real edge is composure, not certainty.

Great investing is not about predicting the future. It is about staying calm enough to survive it.

 

Written by Marius Kilian

 

Sources:

*“We Don’t Bury Our dead”, Rubin Miller, fortunesandfrictions.com, 10 Nov 2025

*“The Creative Act, A Away of Being”, Rick Rubin, Penguin Press, 2023